When thinking about the choked supply chain, we tend to focus on shortages of small-component electronics, but even I was surprised when a reader called to tell me some of the Skyhawks in his large training fleet were grounded because he couldn’t get oil filters to complete 50-hour oil changes—for several months. Others consistently report long delays getting accessories including starters, alternators and brakes. Components for overhauling and repairing engines aren’t exactly moving at a record pace, either.
Ready to finally spend big on a factory-new airplane—perhaps a Cirrus? You’ll likely have a couple of years to change your mind as the choked supply chain and labor shortages have slowed aircraft assembly lines. Avionics upgrades? Get in a long line to schedule a slot on the shop floor. Most of the respected avionics shops are booking at least six months in advance for major projects—and once there, equipment shortages are keeping aircraft down for months at a time.
Will this mess get better any time soon? Not likely, but the good companies are making major changes to their operation and in some cases, reworking product lines and manufacturing processes to fit the new normal we otherwise know as the choked aviation supply chain.
DOMINO EFFECTS
Things certainly haven’t been slow in the general aviation sector. A brisk used aircraft sales market that started at the beginning of the pandemic has put even more strain on an industry trying to deliver products and services. Think about it:
All of those used planes that have been selling for top dollar put even greater demand on the struggling supply chain. Worse, not only can’t shops source the parts needed to get customer aircraft out of their hangar and tiedown spots, but many struggle to find skilled employees to pump the work out.
“Honestly, our floor schedule has been overbooked for over a year because we simply don’t have the staff to finish these jobs as quickly as the typical customer expects. But we bring them in anyway,” one busy avionics shop manager told me. He said gone are the days where you can order all of the major avionics components for the job and have them arrive a few days later. In some cases, they might not be available for months and that’s forcing some buyers (and shops) to turn to the used avionics market—where things aren’t much better.
Later-model avionics worth buying—and I’m talking about Garmin GNS, GTN and Avidyne IFD GPS units, to name a few—are in demand because the used equipment market relies on new retrofits. The used market won’t see a healthy supply of used gear if new retrofit projects move at a snail’s pace because of parts shortages. If an owner makes the decision to yank out his suite of dual Garmin GNS 430W systems, as one example, it could be nine months or longer before those used boxes are available for resale. This is creating long waiting lists—and premium prices—for popular used avionics.
IT’S AN INDUSTRY-WIDE DILEMMA
Talking to vendors and consumers at AirVenture this past summer really mirrors what we’ve been hearing across the industry over the last year and a half. Not only have there have been shortages of critical components needed to build and maintain stuff in existing product lines, but there’s also been a slowdown in R&D, although that could be changing because companies are being forced to replace products that have been hit with parts obsolescence. The problem is widespread. It doesn’t matter if it’s avionics, engines, consumables, experimental kits or headsets—there is a lot of uncertainty and the good news is that the good manufacturers are reacting to avoid problems that could impact them a year or more down the road.
What I’ve seen talking with manufacturers is a critical awareness of the problems and it’s forcing them to react quickly and creatively. That’s good for buyers. This means companies are finding new suppliers and multiple sources for components, although for certified products that could be challenging given the regulatory requirements for approved parts. The same can be said for engines, where there may be one manufacturer for a critical component.
One thing I noticed talking with manufacturers is a focus in redesigning products that may be getting long in the tooth because they simply can’t source the parts needed to keep producing them. That ultimately means adding new features and building in better technology. One example of that comes from Advanced Flight Systems, which was forced to source new major components for its integrated flight display line.
“About nine months ago we were notified that Mitsubishi (a supplier of the display used in the AF-series product) was getting out of the LCD display business and that made us look hard for a new LCD and honestly, the old one was aging anyway,” company President Rob Hickman said. The replacements, which were unveiled at AirVenture last summer, are more efficient, they are lighter and I think they just look better compared to the older ones. The AF-6600 large-screen EFIS also has a new processor, while retaining compatibility with Dynon and other avionics.
Avionics manufacturer uAvionix said it started feeling the supply chain pinch over a year ago. Seeing the handwriting on the wall, the company boosted its inventory of components to stay ahead of the problem. “At this point, uAvionix is happy to say that we actually have a decent supply of AV-30 displays and tailBeacon and skyBeacon ADS-B systems. There may be a bit of a lag in building the systems (here in the U.S.), but that’s just a matter of a few weeks rather than a few months like other companies are dealing with,” Shane Woodson from uAvionix told me. Saying that, he reinforced that if a buyer is committed to one of these products, it’s probably not a good idea to wait very long before buying it. The lead time may be a few weeks now, but that could change at any time.
Companies with smaller product lines seem to have bigger struggles. “Because we’re building things with chip components—and with a high level of reliability to meet temperature and environmental ratings—we get hit every week with something that’s reached the end of life or something that’s just not available right now,” Scott Philiben from CIES told me. His company supplies the highly accurate digital fuel quantity sensors to both the OEM and aftermarket. “We’ve feathered our bed by locking in some key components for our products, but we’re running out of chips on a weekly basis,” he said.
Over at Garmin, Jim Alpiser told me the company has been working on product redesigns and making decent progress. Shops I talked with concur that lead times on Garmin equipment have been slowly improving, but certainly not anywhere near what was once the normal.
“Dealing with the supply chain issue means planning further in advance on the installation in general. The amount of time it takes to get the equipment to our dealers could be several months and during that time, the dealer can have the parts on order and in a perfect world, those parts are available when the airplane arrives at the shop,” Alpiser told me at AirVenture last summer.
Unfortunately, you’ll have to rely on the installing dealer to juggle those balls. I’ve heard nightmare stories of buyers waiting six or more months for a slot on the installation floor (while paying hefty deposits) only to have the aircraft sit because the shop is still waiting for parts. My advice is to ask the shop if it has all of the equipment it needs to complete the job before you even drop it off. If it doesn’t, will it have everything by the time it’s ready to begin testing? These days it’s not uncommon to fly away with loaners and used components (if they’re even available) because the gear never arrived when the shop expected it would.
But it isn’t just about avionics. Even accessories that you would think are in plentiful supply are choked. I talked with Matt Ruwe at Bose about what he is seeing for delivery of headsets. According to him, the pandemic created a surge of new demand for Bose aviation headsets.
“We’ve never seen demand this high, but at the same time we’ve had significant supply chain challenges. Fortunately, the power and size of Bose has tremendously helped us with leveraging our vendors,” Ruwe told me.
He said the company has typically been seeing backorders that exceed four to six weeks or longer, depending on the version of headset you want. Ruwe said many buyers might not realize there are as many as 50 different part numbers given the variation in connectors, cables, microphones and other unique differences that only complicate delivery.
“The advice we’re giving people is to allow a lot of lead time not only for new products, but also for factory repairs,” Ruwe said.
Speaking of headsets, the supply challenges haven’t stopped competitor Lightspeed from forging ahead. At press time it announced a clean-sheet headset called the Delta Zulu. It’s been a long time in development with some unique features. Look for an upcoming report in Aviation Consumer.
WILL IT GET WORSE?
Many predict the supply problem will only worsen because of the overall global flow (or lack of flow) of goods. It’s a problem plaguing importers, retailers, warehouses, trucking companies and shipping companies.
One aviation executive told me there has to be a sizable push to bring more parts manufacturing back in house rather than the mass outsourcing that’s been going on.
At the very least, expect to see freight costs skyrocket even higher than we’ve seen to date. That means the engine or propeller you ordered (or the one you’re shipping to have rebuilt) will be even more expensive to crate and deliver.
“I was astonished when I saw an additional line item on my avionics installation invoice that totaled $585 in shipping costs,” someone recently told me. The lesson there is to ask the shop quoting the project if the job includes freight charges. Chances are it does not and you will have to pay extra for it. It’s a huge cost that shops generally do not absorb.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE PLANNING
Whether you’re planning an avionics upgrade, building a homebuilt, swapping an engine or stocking consumables like filters and spark plugs, you really have to build in extra time for components to arrive. Order soon and order early (even if you aren’t ready for it—which is often the case with homebuilt projects) is what manufacturers are advising. But that also creates another set of problems, especially if you’re building or refurbishing an aircraft.
For instance, with an engine, in many cases the warranty starts when it arrives. Do you really want a crated engine sitting around for a year or more with the clock running? Similarly, with avionics technology changing so rapidly, the equipment you order now may be outdated and replaced by something better by the time you’re ready to install it.
And then there’s the issue of costs. In addition to the long lead times, we’re also seeing sizable price increases, which will only go higher. It’s a roll of the dice. Do you order now and sit on the equipment while the warranty and technology clocks run, or bank on the supply chain issues turning around by the time you’re really ready for the goods? One out is to simply sell the stuff if you decide to bail out of the project.
Last, you just need to be patient and accept that it will take longer to get the stuff and services you need. This problem isn’t going away any time soon, but with the right planning you can minimize the hassles.
See a video report on the supply chain at http://tinyurl.com/j95ht2a.